Kashei:

While I will not speculate on the reasons why Bush went to war, I think your assessment on the Republican Jewish vote is wrong. The Bush Administration has targeted the Jewish vote as one of the groups where it can improve its showing in the 2004 election over the 2000 election.

In 2000, the Jewish vote went to Gore over Bush by over 4-1. In the 2004 race, it looks like it will go to the Democrat 2-1. This is an increase in the Republican vote from 19% to 34% or a 15% point swing. That is equivalent to about .5% of votes nationwide.

I believe that the Bush team would like to aim for 53% of the two-party vote nationwide instead of 50% in 2000. This improvement in the Jewish vote alone would allow them to achieve 1/6th of their goal.

You also ignore campaign finances. I do not think anyone collects data on donations by religion, but I suspect that a swing in the voting trends is also followed by a swing in donation money.

Dan

Kashei,

I told you,that you were weird. I'll see what I can do to get you registered in the Democratic Party before the primaries in NY, so you can vote for Kucinich too.

http://vikingpundit.blogspot.com/2004_01_01_vikingpundit_archive.html#107393631321628314

This blog helps explain the not-so-alarming result the headline tells.

I wouldn't say a 60/40 split is "overwhelming", given that an estimated 17% of Jewish voters picked Bush in 2000.

I am an insipid fool. I ride the Short Bus. I eat my own feces.

I am a comic genius. I impersonate other contributers - right down to the e mail address, and then post purile rubbish under their name. What a clever boy I am. Then I go out and molest kids.

"Dawn" and "Redneck" ... you also have an IP address (and a document referrer in the Apache logs).

Odds are you've been here before.

And calling someone a child molester, when they can probably figure out your identity, is likely to get you fucked up.

(Just to clarify -- yes, I know that's not really Dawn and RR ... it's why I put the names in quotes.)

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