November 01, 2004

Ok, ok I'll make a prediction

Here it is: one of these sites will be out of the projection business on November 3rd.

Electoral-Vote:Kerry 283, Bush 246

Election Projection: Bush 286, Kerry 252

Update: Vodkapundit has got the rest of the sites' predictions.

Posted by Karol at November 1, 2004 01:10 AM | TrackBack
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Let's hope both sites are out of business on Nov. 3 and we know who the president will be for the next four years.

Posted by: Von Bek at November 1, 2004 09:02 AM

Anything could happen. But I find it hard to believe people are going to vote for a man whose first impulse upon seeing the bin Laden tape was to take a poll. And with Hawaii and New Jersey tied, and New Mexico going for Bush, I cannot imagine all three of the big swing states breaking for Kerry. But again, anything can happen.

Posted by: Dorian at November 1, 2004 09:51 AM

Afterthought: I am feeling pretty good about it. For one thing, it would be odd for Bush to lead in EVERY national poll, and lose. Secondly, my Mom, who voted for Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton, Clinton, and Gore, just voted...for George W. Bush.

Posted by: Dorian at November 1, 2004 10:13 AM

Not really- polls are dead-wrong every year, and those never seem to go out of business.

Posted by: Stephen Silver at November 1, 2004 10:14 AM

Final thought: 8 out of 10 dead people are voting for Kerry, so a big turn out among dead people and ghosts could turn this thing back to him.

Posted by: Dorian at November 1, 2004 10:45 AM

Pollsters explain being wrong by saying their polls are a 'snapshot' in time. These guys are calling the election. One of them is going to be wildly wrong tomorrow.

Posted by: Karol at November 1, 2004 11:58 AM

Hopefully dead people will decide to sit this election out unlike years past.

TradeSports, which I trust more than any poll, has Bush with a 56% chance of winning. Which isn't bad, but it's not all that good either. I'm starting to get a little nervous about this thing.

Posted by: Yaron at November 1, 2004 12:37 PM

I don't think TradeSports represents an unbiased demographic, dude(ette?). But we'll see, I guess.

Posted by: Andrew at November 1, 2004 12:47 PM

Remember Megan Harrington

Posted by: Brautigan at November 1, 2004 12:56 PM

Every national poll? I think you overstate your case Dorian, as Fox News has had Kerry ahead nationally among likely voters. Frankly, with most of the national polls have Bush below 50% and within the margin of error, I think we can pretty much throw them out.

Posted by: Alceste at November 1, 2004 01:15 PM

I don't overstate my case at all. Fox News has Kerry within the margin of error in a one-day tracking poll. Every other day for about the past 2 months, Bush has led it. Bush is ahead in Gallup. He is ahead in Zogby. He is ahead in CBS/NYTimes. He is ahead in Wall Street Journal. It is every major poll. It is within the margin of error. He could lose. But I think it would be odd to be ahead in every poll, and lose. We would be very wrong. Which is possible.

Posted by: Dorian at November 1, 2004 01:20 PM

Historically, Bush's numbers are extremely poor for an incumbant, Dorian. And even if you just want to look at 2000 polls, Bush was notably up by 3 points before election day, then came in at a statistical tie. Who knows how this is going to go, but as far as the polls are concerned, there's no absolutely telling.

Posted by: Andrew at November 1, 2004 01:44 PM

I'm a guy, by the way (response to earlier comment).

Posted by: Yaron at November 1, 2004 02:13 PM

Gallup is 49-47; WSJ was 48-47; Zogby was also 48-47. I do not dispute that Bush is and has been ahead. But these leads are well within the margin of error. Moreover, as long as Bush is below 50%, there is a statistical likelihood of undecided voters (~2-3% in most of the polls) breaking against Bush (which does not necessarily mean I think that it's going to happen, just that it's likely). The idea that it is "odd" (in the normal sense of the word) that Bush would lose simply because he is ahead in the national polls is unfounded. Neither would it be odd for Kerry to lose. Both are well-within the realm of statistical probability. It's a close election; and at this point, I really don't think national polls are going to tell us anything else.

Posted by: Alceste at November 1, 2004 02:24 PM

Actually, the idea of undecided voters breaking against the incumbant is a myth. If you go back and look at undecided numbers from past elections, they pretty much split down the middle. Also, I believe I mentioned the numbers were inside the margin of error and a Kerry victory is possible. For all practical purposes, it seems to be a tie. But obviously a candidate would rather be in Bush's position--up in almost every poll--than in Kerry's position--down in almost every poll.

Posted by: Dorian at November 1, 2004 05:31 PM

I think the "break" has been calculated at 2.5 +/- 2 % against the incumbent. Not a myth, just not as big (or predictable - the 70 % chance of a result between .5 and 4.5 should not give anyone comfort in the accuracy of the idea) as many on my side would have you belief. (The other problem I see with the "break" theory is that it really is descriptive of past elections rather than predictive of future elections.) I was really just pointing out what you acknowledge, it's a statistical tie. I'd rather be in Bush's shoes too (although the state-by-state results are really the only ones that matter now...) I just wouldn't find any result surprising.

Posted by: Alceste at November 1, 2004 06:50 PM

Also, the "undecided" break is only relevant to the difference between the Monday polls and the Tuesday voting, not the trends throughout the tracking.

Posted by: ugarte at November 1, 2004 11:32 PM

Bush break 300----

Posted by: jc at November 2, 2004 03:55 AM

looks like election projection got it 100 percent right.

Posted by: young-white-and-liberal at November 8, 2004 07:32 AM

Hands down, Apple's app store wins by a mile. It's a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I'm not sure I'd want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

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