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September 11, 2005

Political Katrina

Regarding the politicians in Louisiana blaming Bush after Katrina, James Taranto wrote: 'When they point the finger at the federal government for whatever went wrong in the Katrina response, remember that they are fighting for their political lives.'

An AP story has the numbers and, if the projections are correct, I don't see how a Democrat will win in Louisiana for some time.

Landrieu was elected in a 2002 runoff by a 52-48 margin, a difference of just 42,000 votes. New Orleans was the base of her support.

"If that's compromised, that could be a problem for her," said John Maginnis, who publishes a political newsletter in Louisiana.

Landrieu is not up for re-election until 2008. Kathleen Blanco, the Democratic governor, who also won by a 52-48 margin, faces re-election in 2007.

Let's not forget that Blanco's win was owed in part to some very overt racism against her opponent,Bobby Jindal, one of my favorite politicans and now a Congressman.

Want to see life in fantasyland? Check out these quotes about Texas:

Bob Stein, professor of political science at Rice University in Houston, said the political impact on Texas depends in large part on how concentrated or widely dispersed the evacuees are.

...

In any event, though, with Texas' Hispanic population surging and its black population growing faster than the white population, demographic shifts already are pushing the state toward the Democrats. Katrina could help hasten the trend.

"Our politics may be Republican," Stein said, "but that's just a temporary condition."

The thought is echoed by David Bositis, a senior political analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a think tank focused on black issues. He said adding a substantial number of blacks to the state could "potentially make Texas more competitive in the not-too-distant future."

I am a Republican living in NYC. I know that it's nice to dream that the people in your city or state will wake-up and suddenly think like you do. It ain't happening in NY and it ain't happening in Texas. If Texas trends Democrat, a Republican won't win the presidency for a decade or longer. So, yeah, keep the dream alive and by all means, the DNC should spend more money in Texas than in Florida, Ohio or any other state that was actually close in the last few elections.

Posted by Karol at September 11, 2005 03:10 PM | TrackBack
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Texas wasn't even close. It was like NY, only in the other direction. And what makes them think that the refugees are going to vote Dem again, given what 30 years of Dem rule in Louisiana did for them?

Posted by: Yehudit at September 11, 2005 04:03 PM

Next time you categorize a democratic accusation as "sick" K, I'm going to point to this post.

Posted by: Toby at September 11, 2005 04:27 PM

speaking as someone who is actually in Texas, I would remind you that ann richards was governor here not too long ago and even dallas has a democratic mayor. be careful what u wish for in terms of dnc money spending.

Posted by: dawn at September 11, 2005 04:31 PM

What's sick about this post, Toby? Democrats spent every day after Katrina being political and using whatever they could to hurt Bush. I can't speculate about demographic shifts and how they will affect future elections but Dems can plainly state that Bush doesn't care about black people or that the Republican response to Katrina was purposely slow?

Dawn, NYC has a Republican mayor and NY state has a Republican governor. And still the RNC would have to be toking some serious crack to spent one dime here during a presidential (or even a Senatorial) election.

Posted by: Karol at September 11, 2005 04:43 PM

Speaking as someone who was actually living in Texas at the time, Richards would have lost if Clayton Williams hadn't stuck his foot in his mouth - twice - which had more to do with her winning than anything else.

Also remember that at that time it was still hard for republicans to win some elections due to the memories of "reconstruction" (which some Texans still call "occupation"). So there were members of the Texas democratic party that would not be recognizeable to the democratic party today. For example they had generally conservative principles, believed in a strong military, and believed in God.

Things started to change in the 80s and 90s when many democrats started changing over to the republican party. Phil Gramm is a prime example.

As for the population shift, I think the growth of the hispanic population won't benefit the democrats as much as they think. This segment of the population historically believes in God, is against abortion, and has other conservative viewpoints which don't exactly jobe with the democratic mindset.

Posted by: whatever at September 11, 2005 05:43 PM

My hispanic friends down here in Dallas are some of the most conservative people I've ever met.

As long as Dallas/ Fort Worth and surrounding areas remain 80% SOUTHERN BAPTIST and rural texans still vote...

Posted by: rachel at September 12, 2005 12:48 AM

I really don't see how blaming the actons of Blanco/Nagin/Landreau is any less "politicizing tragedy" than blaming Bush is.

Posted by: Steve at September 12, 2005 10:59 AM

I'm not so sure Tarranto is right in his usual bland reassurances that everything is always a-ok for the Republican Party. Check out the new Survey USA poll. Louisiana is the second most prolife state in the nation next to Utah. If that's the case (and based on the strong Catholic and evangelical culture there, I assume it is), why the hell has the GOP not done better ? Sure there's the legacy of Reconstruction. But that has not really mattered that much in most Southern states in the last 30 years. After voting for ole Strom and "in Birmingham we love the governor, fool, fool, fool, now we all did what we could do" back in 68, the ancestral ties to the Democrats just aren't there. I think there may be a bit more here than meets the eye but I have no idea what. Corruption ? Catholics voting on social justice issues ? The fact that it's a poor state ? The ghost of the Kingfish ?

Posted by: Von Bek at September 12, 2005 03:03 PM

Von Bek, Taranto has been remarkably right on most, if not all, of his predictions. The South was once entirely Democratic, it is steadily becoming more Republican. These kinds of changes don't happen overnight.

Posted by: Karol at September 12, 2005 03:07 PM

Yes, Taranto is always right. Frist will get the judges through easily since the Dems really want to get rid of the fillibuster. And Bush will not fall into the second term ineffective trap that almost every other president who won re-election stumbled into. Social Security is a winner for Bush. And that's just one day of his wise predictions.

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/journaleditorialreport/012105/transcript_briefing.html

While I am aware that the South was once Democratic and is now solidly Republican (preaching to the choir Karol), I am still suprised at why the GOP in Lousiana has not done well compared to the other state Republican parties in the South. While these things take time, I'm baffled why LA seems a bit more purplish than the rest of the South which is a nice red.

Posted by: Von Bek at September 12, 2005 04:16 PM
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