September 12, 2005
Skip this post if you don't live in NY
Tomorrow is Primary Day in NYC and, being a Republican, I have no one to vote for. There is no primary for City Council in my district (we did have one two years ago so it's not totally outside the realm of possibility). There's no mayoral primary. And none for District Attorney, Comptroller or Public Advocate. Hell, forget primaries, we don't even have one candidate for those last three offices. It's pathetic.
Not that the Democrats are in a much better position. What they have in quantity, they lack in quality. Two uninspiring men, Freddy Ferrer and Gifford Miller, and one totally unqualified woman, Virginia Fields, are running for mayor. The last candidate, Anthony Weiner, is a Congressman who, for reasons I can not fathom, has chosen to run for mayor.
I know conventional wisdom has Bloomberg winning in a landslide in November. I don't know that I believe conventional wisdom. For one thing, it's always easy to be the winner when you have no opponent. George W. Bush was crushing any of the 9 Democrats at the start of the primary season. But when it came down to one against one, Bush evened out with Kerry and remained that way until the end. The second reason I don't think that the Bloomberg campaign should be planning a victory party just yet is that he is the only one doing massive advertising right now. The rest have had limited ads on tv, mostly biographical spots. Look for a shift in the poll numbers when there is one clear candidate on tv every day. I'm not saying Bloomberg will lose, you'd have to be a certain kind of stupid to bet against a billionaire, but I definitely don't think it will be as easy as everyone around me seems to believe.
With that in mind, I'm doing what most Republicans in NYC do, considering which of the Democratic candidates wouldn't be the worst, which one could I live with and not have to worry about the city becoming Dinkinsified again. And, with primary day upon us, it's a good time to review the campaigns of the hopefuls.
Let's start with the frontrunner, Freddy Ferrer. Al Sharpton endorsed him yesterday. You know that whole thing about the enemy of my enemy is my friend? Well, Al Sharpton is my enemy, work that in to that analogy as you'd like. He is hateful and disgusting. Anyone he endorses is immediately disqualified from being taken seriously by me. Those outside NY may see Sharpton as the dim-witted comedian who ran for president last time around. I see him as the propagator of racial tension, someone who makes their living off of racial animosity. I hate him and I don't say that about many other people. The Politicker quotes him as saying 'If [Ferrer] makes a mistake, we'll correct him, but nobody else better correct him. This is our family business.' Wow. I want to be as far away from his family and their business as can be. If Ferrer doesn't win this outright, these kinds of statements by Sharpton will bury him in the runoff.
Virginia Fields. Nice enough lady. But mayor? Lady, c'mon. She held the mostly ceremonial post of Borough President, and she got that job mostly by accident. Our last mayor to come from the Borough President ranks? David Dinkins. When she fired her advisor, Joe Mercurio, for allegedly inserting people of different races into a publicity piece for her, I knew she was done. Mercurio was the only one keeping her name in the papers. He was on TV all the time, since he's a regular guest of NY1, pushing her candidacy. Without him, she hasn't had much of a campaign.
Anthony Weiner. Ari said it best: 'look, we're not going to have a mayor named Weiner. We're just not.' But we might. Weiner is now running second to Ferrer. If he holds him to under 40% and forces a runoff, it may seem like election 2001 all over again (with Weiner playing the part of Mark Green who came in second to Ferrer, forced a runoff, won that, then amazingly lost in the general to Bloomberg). But Weiner isn't Mark Green. People don't spontaneously gag when they hear his name. He's the dark horse in this race.
Gifford Miller. It needs to be said: he ran, by far, the worst ads of this race. His media firm should be fired. They were embarrassing. One of them had Giff walking and talking at high speed, because NY is such a fast city and he barely even had time to make this commercial. Another ad is him pushing desks around a classroom and concludes with kids sitting at their desks screaming 'Gifford Miller Yaaaaaaaaaay'. Awful. Apart from that, Miller is just disliked. His babyface isn't his liability. It's his mouth and the pompous sounds it makes. Before the Weiner rise, I saw Miller as Ferrer's second. If he fails tomorrow, and I think he will, he can blame his terrible commercials and his unappealing arrogance.
So, I guess I wouldn't die if Weiner won. And yes, I do prefer Bloomberg to all of these candidates. We'll see what happens in November.
*Off topic but if you want to see the most bizarre ad of the season, check this one out by Brian Ellner. He's running for Borough President although he seems to think his opponent is George W. Bush. It's basically a 'Bush sucks, meet my boyfriend'. Hi-lar-ious, though obviously not meant to be.
Posted by Karol at September 12, 2005 05:19 PM | TrackBackTechnorati Tags: NYC+Politics NY+Politics Mayoral+Race+New+York Mayoral+Primary+New+York Mayoral+Race+NYC
Nice writeup.
What do you think of Bloomberg spending massive amounts of money on advertising at this point of the campaign?
Posted by: Jake at September 12, 2005 10:18 PMSo true. That Ellner guy will not defeat me tomorrow. In fact, I'm coming to New York just to make sure he doesn't pull an upset win on me with my poll numbers dropping so low. I hate that he stole that "This is my partner" thing from Gore and I...I mean, me.
Posted by: George W Bush at September 12, 2005 10:22 PMJake, I think it's always smart to define yourself early on. And, he's got the money to do it.
Posted by: Karol at September 12, 2005 10:30 PMGreat comments (as always).
I'll pass the word onto Gifford. He does need to lose that "pomposity with every utterance" though.
He'll be Mayor one day though (not saying that's a good thing . . .)
Until the next time I flake at a poker night commitment . . .
Posted by: Kevin Patrick at September 12, 2005 10:34 PMi thought i was going to vote for giff as a protest against bloomie's property tax hikes but i just don't think i'll be able to bring myself to do it...the enemy you know and all...
weiner is awful. he's my congressman and has done zero other than try to get his mug in the media as much as possible.
Posted by: anna at September 12, 2005 11:19 PMDon't get me wrong, I'm no fan of Weiner. Just compared to the other 3, he seems like the superior candidate.
Posted by: Karol at September 12, 2005 11:38 PMWhile biting my tongue... I think I may actually vote for Weiner. Go figure. The rest just suck too much. And did I hear correctly? Virginia was imprisoned at some point?? WTF?!!
Posted by: Ari at September 13, 2005 12:04 AM
The winner of the primary needs 40% (not 50%) to avoid a run-off.
Weiner would be a terrible mayor because of all his spending proposals and tax hikes. Could you imagine him trying to manage the city through a terrible crisis? Geesh.
The other 3 candidates are worse. Gifford Miller had the most pathetic performance at a debate I've ever seen - when he was asked if he would send his children to public or private school, he froze and then turned to his wife in the audience to help him answer the question.
Bloomberg would never admit it, but he's not sweating. He ran his campaign a la Bill Clinton in 1996 - flood the airwaves with positive ads before anyone knows who your opponent is.
Remember how Rudy won in a blowout in '97 against Ruth Messinger? It'll be like that.
Posted by: Thomas Galvin at September 13, 2005 12:18 AMThanks, Thomas, fixed.
Posted by: Karol at September 13, 2005 12:31 AMAccording to the City Voter Guide, there is a Republican primary between Mayor Bloomberg (RINO) and Tom Ognibene (R-C). Sadly, Ognibene was knocked off the party line in a byzantine machination known as a petition challenge.
Just for the fun of it, I am bringing the voter guide and demanding a right to vote for the only actual Republican in the race.
Daniel S. Maio is a Republican running For Public Advocate, but he a perennial losing candidate.
Henry Morgenthau has the Republican nomination for Distric Attorney, although he is fighting for his political life in his native Democrat party.
While there is no Republican running for Comptroller, Conservative Herbert Ryan amd Libertarian Ron Moore are.
If you have not moved, I believe that you reside in the Fifth Council District. Joel Zinberg is the only Republican Running.
Posted by: Ron Lewenberg at September 13, 2005 05:05 AMI saw Zinberg at the Young Republicans meeting last month -- I don't agree with a lot of what he says, but I'd trust him more than most council members....
...though that's not saying alot.
Zinberg, at least, is pro-business.
Posted by: meep at September 13, 2005 05:52 AMI cannot help but notice that all your objections to the Democratic candidates are superficial---he has a funny name, his commercials are bad, etc etc etc.
If memory serves your reasons for supporting GOP candidates are equally superficial.
Since I'm not a Democrat I won't be voting today either. In November I'll vote for anyone who will offer this city what it needs (schools, affordable housing, decent hospitals, reliable public transportation)instead of givaways to the wealthy (West side stadiums, Olympics).
Posted by: Don Myers at September 13, 2005 08:22 AMDon, I'll be voting for God, too. No one is going to be able to create a utopia for New Yorkers. Someone who's fiscally responsible is probably the best we can hope for. My prediction is Weiner frontrunner, Bloomberg landslide.
Posted by: Nate at September 13, 2005 08:44 AMYeah, Weiner kind of reminds me of Peter Vallone, the uninspiring best of a bad bunch who is bad but then so is the Republican.
Maio seems to run for everything. He really should not be taken seriously.
Uh...haven't really been following but I think Freddie and Weiner see each other in a run off.
How does the public advocate race look ? Madame Advocate and Norman in a run off or not ?
Karol,
Sounds to me like you have a great opportunity here. This sounds like the same position conservatives were in in the 1960s. No candidates, save Goldwater, but the opportunity to build a movement. I can't believe it would be impossible to build a Republican - even a conservative - movement in New York. Go get 'em!
Posted by: matt at September 13, 2005 10:09 AMmatt,
You'd be surprised how difficult it is.
New York City is just a place to raise money for Republicans, locally and nationally. Those Republicans "in power" in NYC, the ones with paying Part gigs and whatnot, are only interested in staying in power and maintaining relationships with the city's wealthy Republican donor base.
Organizing for local politics is not even on their radar screen.
Hell, they gave a liberal Democrat (Bloomberg) the Republican nomination for mayor, over a longtime party activist (Herman Badillo) because the liberal Democrat had more money.
The GOP in NYC is corrupt and doomed for the forseeable future.
Posted by: Sean at September 13, 2005 10:42 AMKarol, I posted my "picks" for Democrats at a href="http://petersonfornyc.blogspot.com/2005/09/democratic-primary-recommendations.html">my blog. I don't want to call them endorsements. I only do that for the General.
Even though I don't like the fact that every democrat wants to raise someone's taxes, at least I'm not in his half-a-mil income range.
Posted by: Daniel P at September 13, 2005 11:44 AMI thought the official line re: Republicans and Public Advocate was that they didn't run anyone because they didn't believe in the position.
And it's a brilliant move for Bloomberg to spend money on ads now because it overshadows the Democratic field and doesn't allow any of them to stand out early on.
Posted by: ken at September 13, 2005 01:12 PMYou didn't even mention the real dark horse: Christopher X. Brodeur.
Posted by: ugarte at September 13, 2005 01:26 PMYes, Brodeur is certainly a dark horse. A very dark horse. A horse that isn't even in the running. The fact that he actually makes it onto the ballot every time he runs, when normal not crazy candidates don't, terrifies me.
Posted by: Karol at September 13, 2005 01:35 PMI almost think every Republican should registered Democrat one year before the Local elections JUST to vote for Brodeur and make a point. The media will be stumped as to what happened. ;)
There is no Comptroller and Public Advocate candidate because Bloomberg didn't want a "ticket" for the city-wide election. He'll do a "ticket" for local campaigns (cause I think, even he doesn't like having a 48-3 ratio in the council), but he wants to sink the republican party for 2009.
As for our Liberal Republicans like Zinberg & Murphy. I like Zinberg and think he'll make a good candidate, but Murphy is not Republican enough for me. He sounds like a Democrat that will simply vote the way the Mayor wants him to.
Posted by: Daniel Peterson at September 13, 2005 06:15 PMBrodeur's a fucking lunatic, and I'm sure he's pissed off that NYPress changed hands again and he can't use it as his personal soapbox anymore.
I haven't seen the Miller ad, but it sounds like a ripoff of Wellstone's ad from 1990, where he runs around for 30 seconds to prove that he's running a "low budget" campaign. That worked, though, 'cause Paul had legitimate underdog appeal, which Miller sure lacks.
I'm for Weiner, he's the only one I'd vote for if I were still in NY.
Posted by: Steve at September 13, 2005 07:10 PM
