October 24, 2005
A must-read
Mark Steyn has a devastating piece in the Spectator on the death of Russia and why it matters to America:
That’s the danger for America — that most of what Russia has to trade is likely to be damaging to US interests. In its death throes, it could bequeath the world several new Muslim nations, a nuclear Middle East and a stronger China. In theory, America could do a belated follow-up to the Alaska deal and put in a bid for Siberia. But Russia’s calculation is that sooner or later we’ll be back in a bipolar world and that, in almost any scenario, there’s more advantage in being part of the non-American pole. A Sino–Russian strategic partnership has a certain logic to it, and so, in a darker way, does a Russo–Muslim alliance of convenience. In 1989, with the Warsaw Pact crumbling before his eyes, poor old Mikhail Gorbachev received a helpful bit of advice from the cocky young upstart on the block, the Ayatollah Khomeini: ‘I strongly urge that in breaking down the walls of Marxist fantasies you do not fall into the prison of the West and the Great Satan,’ wrote the pioneer Islamist nutcase. ‘I openly announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran, as the greatest and most powerful base of the Islamic world, can easily help fill up the ideological vacuum of your system.’In an odd way, that’s what happened everywhere but the Kremlin. As communism retreated, radical Islam seeped into Afghanistan and Indonesia and the Balkans. Crazy guys holed up in Philippine jungles and the tri-border region of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay which would have been ‘Marxist fantasists’ a generation or two back are now Islamists: it’s the ideology du jour. Even the otherwise perplexing enthusiasm of the western Left for the jihad’s misogynist homophobe theocrats is best understood as a latterday variation on the Hitler/Stalin pact. And, despite Gorbachev turning down the offer, it will be Russia’s fate to have large chunks of its turf annexed by the Islamic world.
Via Allah.
Technorati Tags: Russia Mark+Steyn Spectator Death+Of+Russia
The question for those of us entering this 21st century Great Game over the next few decades is what we can do - on the ground, not just in national policy - to counter both the Islamist advance and the Sino-Russian cooperation. Sadly, we must first counter those in the West who think there is nothing to be done about it.
Posted by: J.Kende at October 24, 2005 07:31 PMSo then, in retrospect, does that make Putin's move to consolidate more power after the Beslan massacre necessary? So as to counter the Islamist threat?
Sadly, we must first counter those in the West who think there is nothing to be done about [Sino-Russian cooperation].
Even worse is when you consider that it's not only left-wing extremists, but perhaps many large companies investing in China.
Posted by: Shawn at October 25, 2005 12:26 AMChina we CAN'T do anything about. It will become a superpower whether we like it or not.
In actual fact i think a tri-polar world is more likely with US and the American continent, the EU, and China, Japan and South-East Asia as the big 3 economic blocs. Not sure where Russia fits in. Hopefully within a European Federation.
Posted by: Nick Saunders at October 25, 2005 06:56 AMThanks for posting this, Karol, it really is a must read.
Posted by: Lenin at October 25, 2005 04:08 PMChina, Japan, and Southeast Asia working together? Yeah right.
Japan is getting as close to the US as possible. It will be the East Asian anchor of the emerging Anglosphere.
China boosters tend to overlook that it really is less of a unified country than a barely held together empire. Tibet, the Uighers, the Mongolians, and others are not likely to stay under the thumb of Beijing if they can manage any way not to. Will China democratize? Will it's economic growth be sacrificed in return for closing the gap between the peasantry and the booming middle class? Will Japan, the US, the two Koreas, Russia, India, and ASEAN stand by and have no influence over what direction China takes?
This entire process is a high stakes competition to determine the results. Anyone who thinks the outcome is certain this early in the game needs to go back to the 1800's and relive the history of the British and Russian empires racing each other to carve of Asia.
Posted by: J.Kende at October 26, 2005 02:18 AM
Bear in mind J.Kende that if you asked a frenchman, german and englishman 100 years ago if they thought the 3 nations would be allies in a western alliance, part of the 2nd largest economic area in the world (in both population and economic strength) and would be debating further political integration you would be laughed out of the room. Countries often do things we wouldnt expect if they think its in their interest.
