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November 09, 2005

Morning

I woke up to too many messages on my voicemail from gleeful Democrat friends asking if I've seen the results in Virginia, New Jersey and California. Why yes, I had.

Virginia and New Jersey elected Democrats to the governorship to replace outgoing Democrats. Basically, if Democrats didn't win those two elections, they could hang up the chaps now because they've got no business riding. Republicans control the White House, the Senate, the House and the majority of Governorships. Democrats had no choice but to strongly defend two of their seats and they defended them well. If Republicans had won even one of those seats, the night would have been a disaster for Democrats. They were supposed to win. That was the bar.

As for the propositions in California, while they can certainly be seen as a defeat for Schwarzenegger, I'd like to remind people that back in '02, NY mayor Mike Bloomberg suffered an embarrassing defeat to his ballot proposal for nonpartisan elections. His approval rating was in the toilet, among every segment of the population. People said he would never recover and that his defeat in '05 was a given. But then he bounced back and crushed the chosen Democrat. And Mike is no Arnold. Arnold has star power in a way Mike never will. Mike actually sshh'd his supporters last night as they screamed 'four more years' during his victory speech. This is not someone that lights a fire in anyone's belly in a way that Arnold can. And yet, crush Freddy he did. Will Arnold run again, will he win? I don't know. But this kind of loss is nothing, he can brush the dirt off his shoulder and easily live to fight another day.

Finally, the local NY elections. Republicans lost all four contested seats for the City Council. It was an uphill struggle for all of them, voter registration figures being as they are in this city.

My hope for the NY Republican party is that it figures out exactly what it is that they offer the voters that Democrats do not. This isn't easy in a city as liberal as ours. But there is a reason that Republicans have been entrusted with the mayoralty for what will soon be 16 years. There has to be a way to transfer that to the local level.

I squabbled with some conservative friends of mine during this election about whether we should try to elect liberal Republicans or stay true to conservative ideals and vote the C line, or something, if the Republican is not our kind of Republican. This is absurd. I'm a conservative but I'm also a realist. Wake up, New York conservatives. A pro-lifer is unlikely to get elected to the City Council, despite the fact that the Council has zero to do with abortion policy. No one that runs against gay marriage, or rent control is getting elected in NY (and, please, spare me the Staten Island examples, that borough has near zero in common with the other four). The more pure we are, the less seats we'll have. The less seats we have, the more liberal the Council, and city (because everyone loves a winner), becomes. The more liberal the Council becomes, the more hand-outs it gives, the more people support it, the more Democrats get elected. You can be ideologically pure, and that's terrific, but you've got to understand that a Republican actually running for office can't be the same. So, the question isn't 'how can we get more conservatives to run for office?' but 'how can we get New Yorkers to understand that conservatism is a better philosophy than liberalism?' If you're constantly attacking Republicans for not being conservative enough and Democrats for not being Republicans, it's unlikely anyone is going to listen to you. Make your arguments, prove your points, and don't just do it from Sept-Nov of each year. This is a process. Knock on doors in April when you're not asking for anyone's vote or support. Get a list of every Republican in your neighborhood and go have some conversations about where the Republican party is headed and what is the best way to get there.

As for you Republican party people, don't take what I'm writing as some kind of confirmation that running sort-of Democrats is the answer. It's not. Rudy Giuliani was the kind of Republican that NY needs. Yes, he's pro-choice and yes, he's for gay marriage. But he's also a badass on crime, a no-nonsense straight talker who never bluffed his way through his opinions and an all-around genuine guy- like him or not. And he was a Republican, the only kind that can win in NY and the only kind, frankly, that we need. Future candidates should study Rudy and go with their gut, even if it'll cost them votes. New Yorkers can smell a fake. Stand on your positions, popular or not, and you will be rewarded for it.

And since this blog is at least partly personal, here's my section on myself. Stop reading now if you don't care. I'm on a break from campaigns. It's too much of an investment, my life gets too hectic and at the end I've got little to show for it. Patrick Murphy is a great guy and I wish him all the best. I met some incredible people like Patrick's campaign manager Kendal Elliott who is just this amazing, friendly force and Joseph Ungoco, a fashion PR guy who is hilarious, brilliant and always made me giggle. Getting to know one of the most amazing men in NY politics, Bill O'Reilly of O'Reilly Communications (not that Bill O'Reilly) has been a definite highlight for me. He's a walking encyclopedia of NY politics and one of the few geniunely nice, kind and most of all real, people I've met in this game. His no-bullshit attitude is so refreshing and anyone involved in NY political PR should have a sticker on their laptop that reads 'what would Bill O'Reilly do?' If I backtrack and stay in politics, not unheard of, I'm definitely getting them printed.

So, now I think I'm looking for a 'real' job. If anyone has any leads in Government Affairs, Public Affairs or Communications, preferably at one of those evil corporations like banks or pharmaceutical companies, do let me know.

Posted by Karol at November 9, 2005 02:04 PM | TrackBack
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Comments

I don't vote. Would be a complete waste of time.

Posted by: Anh at November 9, 2005 02:16 PM

Does this mean you're going to start responding to e-mails again?

Posted by: Allah at November 9, 2005 02:21 PM

Ha. Yes. And I've got a lot to say to you. :-)

Posted by: Karol at November 9, 2005 02:22 PM

Best of luck in your search for a career outside of politics. It can be liberating. No matter what you do, I know you'll do great.

Ditto on O'Reilly who is a hell of a guy.

I still think the GOP blew it in VA. That was a race that was winnable in a state that was winnable. A month ago, the race seemed red. I think the GOP went over the top on the death penalty ads and Kaine's response about his own religious faith taking a back seat to his civic duties was well done.

The Dems ran good campaigns and the wind was against the Republicans. It happens. But I am suprised by the margins of victory.

Posted by: Von Bek at November 9, 2005 02:37 PM

One difference is that the ballot initiatives in California that Schwarzenegger backed are not 'nonpartisan' by any means. Prop 77 (Redistricting Reform) is well meaning and I may even have supported it if it didn't give 3 old white guys the job of redrawing districts. I agree we have serious problems with incumbancy and how districts are drawn in California, but the answer is to get more voices into the mix, move towards some sort of proportional representation scheme. Just my .02.

Posted by: Eddie at November 9, 2005 02:51 PM

The Bloomberg initiative was VERY partisan and would've given Republicans a lot of help. Actually, and it's kind of funny to think back to this now in light of his huge win, he was worried about getting re-elected with the (R) after his name and that was the purpose of the proposal.

Posted by: Karol at November 9, 2005 02:56 PM

"Hang up the chaps": that wasn't a subtle reference to Gov. McGreevey, was it? Ha ha.

I agree with you that, as far as the NY scene, the worst thing to do is over-strategize. I think there's a lot to be optimistic about: New Yorkers by now basically know that being tough on crime is the way to go (that doesn't sound like much, but in the 70's that was a novel concept, and we can see in France that to some people it's still alien). They also know that rent control is not feasible (despite what you say, it's on its way out). And they know that corporations are the lifeblood of the city, not some evil entity that we're fighting against. Now it's just a matter of convincing New Yorkers that there's too much waste in government, that our health-care spending is unsustainable, that we should have school vouchers, etc. All will take time, but I think we're moving in the right direction, and that's the only way to move the city to the right, not some silly tactical stuff. The social issues are a non-starter.

Good luck with your job search, too.

Posted by: Yaron at November 9, 2005 02:59 PM

I didn't call your voicemail. Who are the democrat friends you are inventing?

Posted by: Not Dawn Summers at November 9, 2005 03:37 PM

Karol, having worked hard, although on a volunteer basis, on Joel Zinberg's campaign in the other city council district, my only thought is to wait a few days before you make any important career decisions. Like Patrick, Joel was a great candidate, but we couldn't even get close against the local machine. I'm frankly disappointed, frustrated, exhausted, somewhat angry (I imagine over things that you're pissed about, too, but I don't want to write about here) and probably a lot of other emotions. Just give it a few days. You may turn out that, win or lose, politics is still your true love.

Posted by: bobm at November 9, 2005 03:39 PM

Yaron, I've told this story before but when Rich Lowry was debating running for mayor a few years back, he was the perfect conservative candidate, obviously. He told a story about being in an elevator and getting recognized by a little old lady. She was very excited about the prospect of his running and he was quite pleased to be recognized and admired. And then she said 'but you're for rent control, right?' at which point Rich Lowry said 'of course!' He tells this story that he realized then and there he couldn't run for office. He hadn't even announced and was already squirming.

Rent control is one of those issues that unites Republicans and Democrats in this city. The anti-semitic Rent is Too Damn High party got a lot of attention this season because, well, rents are too damn high.

Dawn, I have friends who are not only Democrats but actually work on campaigns and do more than give their candidate a lukewarm endorsement the day before the election.

Bob, I know politics is my real love but working on campaigns is exhausting, pays poorly and is too sporadic for me to survive like this for too long. I want a regular, normal job for awhile. Maybe I'll do campaigns on the side but this can't be my full-time life.

Posted by: Karol at November 9, 2005 03:46 PM

Aside from the fact that Democrats won two gubernatorial seats that had been Democratic seats to begin with, I'm not sure what the "resounding victories" are that Howard Dean spoke about today. Am I on glue, or did a Republican win the biggest landslide in NYC history last night?

Posted by: Dorian Davis at November 9, 2005 03:51 PM

yes, dorian.

Posted by: Not Dawn Summers at November 9, 2005 04:23 PM

Karol:

You will be a success in whatever you do.

So don't ruin your life by going to law school.

Posted by: Jake at November 9, 2005 04:30 PM

The thing is that I might have to, Jake. It's hard to break into lobbying/govt. affairs without a law degree (or without a name like Gore or Pataki). I'll try but I hope you won't be too disappointed in me if I do have to end up getting that JD.

Posted by: Karol at November 9, 2005 04:35 PM

The NYC mayoralty race had nothing to do with Bloomberg. The race was a referendum on Bush's domestic and foreign policies.

That is why the Republican won the mayoralty race in a historic landslide.

The Democrat party is doomed in America.

Posted by: Jake at November 9, 2005 04:37 PM

Well, it might be ok if you got a JD, if you promise not to go into a law practice.

Posted by: Jake at November 9, 2005 04:41 PM

Well, it might be ok if you got a JD, if you promise not to go into a law practice.

Cross my heart and hope to die.

Posted by: Karol at November 9, 2005 04:43 PM

"The NYC mayoralty race had nothing to do with Bloomberg. The race was a referendum on Bush's domestic and foreign policies."

So NJ and VA were not about Bush but NYC was. Ooh boy. Bloomberg did not have coattails enough to help the GOP in NYC, let alone have enough to declare this a ringing endorsement of Bush's policy. NJ and VA also are a lot more represenative of America than Sodom on the Hudson. Sorry. Not buying.

Posted by: Von Bek at November 9, 2005 04:45 PM

oooh, ooh can I get in on that action??? I hope you die, too!

Posted by: nds at November 9, 2005 05:10 PM

Von Bek:

If you Bush hater's can cherry pick races and label them referendums, I can too. Don't forget about the big Republican victory in Ohio.

Posted by: Jake at November 9, 2005 05:12 PM

I was glad to see the results in Ohio. I'm a conservative, not a Bush hater. But you gushing that New York's mayoral results was proof that Bush is a stunning endorsement for Bush is absurd. I consider myself a man of principles and am willing to buck party when those principles (small government, no defecits, restoring American soverignty, keeping the public square open for religious discourse, maintain life in all forms, preserving our religious and cultural heritage benefiting men and women of the United States and the West, freedom from taxation) are violated. Do you honestly think that NYC would vote for Bush over Kerry if that election were held today ? I don't and anyone not reading the Grand Old Pravda or living in cloud cookoo land would agree.

Posted by: Von Bek at November 9, 2005 05:39 PM

Karol, nobody won, nobody lost.

The status quo stayed the same. Republicans had pretty good showings compared to 2003 and without having a Republican candidate for Mayor and the citywide races, it's hard to get registered Republicans to come out in droves to vote.

We've made some interesting posts today over at Urban Elephants. I don't think giving up is the right thing to do. We have to keep at it. If we're at 35% now, next year, we maybe at 40%. We will still lose but by 2008 we may be at 50%. At 50%, we will win some and lose some. But it's not easy.

We need to look towards next year and really look at what works and what doesn't. Today's Daily News had mayor votes by Assembly District. I think it's important to see the areas that were for Bloomberg and areas that were for Ferrer. The Bloomberg areas are where we should keep focused at for now.

Tomorrow there are some calendar things going on. I hope you'll be out for a drink or two tomorrow. Stop by Margaritas. :)

Posted by: Daniel at November 9, 2005 05:47 PM

Von Bek, by that same token, do you think Virginia would've chosen Kerry over Bush? Of course not. And NJ was never a swing state either.

Posted by: Karol at November 9, 2005 06:32 PM
Well, it might be ok if you got a JD, if you promise not to go into a law practice.

I could have used that advice, oh, about five years ago.

Posted by: Allah at November 9, 2005 06:48 PM

The less seats we have, the more liberal the Council, and city (because everyone loves a winner), becomes.


Your point about getting Republicans elected to City Council is well taken, but it assumes that our candidates are running slightly to the right of their Democratic counterparts. Not the case in my district.

I don't see how electing this guy:
Here’s where Patrick Murphy stands on the Issues:

instead of electing this guy:
Garodnick for New York issues page

would have made that seat, the City Council, or the city less liberal.

In addition, all of the city council candidates lost by a wider margin than Ferrer. So we can justify our third party votes or abstinences on similar grounds to your vote for Silk.

Posted by: Oschisms at November 9, 2005 09:05 PM

Probably not but VA is starting to get a little red and why not ? With the expansion of the federal government there are now more government workers who are increasingly moving into northern VA. All thanks to the "big government conservatives". And Killgore, with the exception of his actually opposing illegal immigration, was very close to Bush's positions on most issues, certainly more so than pro abortion RINOS like Bloomberg and Forrester. The VA race also helps Warner raise his profile on the national level, beating out Bayh and Edwards as the anti-Hillary. Bush also campaigned for Killgore in a very heavy military area. The VA race had a bit of national political implications, one more loss in a bad year for this administration.

Posted by: Von Bek at November 10, 2005 08:54 AM
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