December 06, 2006


How is it that all 4 of the frontrunning candidates, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama all seem so unlikely to win?

Posted by Karol at December 6, 2006 02:54 PM | TrackBack
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I don't know. But you are right. We're in for a bumpy ride.

Posted by: Not Dawn Summers at December 6, 2006 03:21 PM

To my mind, all four you list have legit shots. I'd be interested in your "Why these four won't be President" post, though....

Posted by: Mark Poling at December 6, 2006 03:24 PM

Well, that's the thing. One of them will probably win. But they just all seem so unlikely.

I've written on why I don't think Giuliani can get out of a primary before, though as I always say right after I say that, pleeeeeeease let me be wrong. I just don't trust McCain, especially after Campaign Finance. Hillary Clinton is super polarizing and Barak Obama is a first term senator who would NEVER get the kind of attention he gets if he was white.

I dunno, they just all seem like sure losers in any year but '08.

Posted by: Karol at December 6, 2006 03:28 PM

I think you don't give Southern voters enough credit re: Rudy. Conventional wisdom has been wrong on the insularity of rural southern voters all the way back to JFK. In the end, the redneck vote goes to the candidates who rednecks think has the sense to poor piss out of a boot, and Rudy scores high on most people's "not an idiot" scale. We'll see if I'm right, I think.

I don't like McCain either; way too willing to sacrifice first principals for shortcuts to "results". (Campaign Finance Reform being only the tip of the iceberg there.) Besides, McCain is getting old. And with him, it's not just the years, its the mileage.

I detest Hillary. Having said that, she's one of the few Democrats who strikes me as having enough sense to poor piss out of a boot. 'Nuff said.

All the quotes I've read from Obama make me think he has a good temperament, and that he's not an idiot. You're right, I think, that he's getting a boost from the press because of his skin color, but he seems like a sharp, decent human being. (After Gore and Kerry, that's a definite step in the right direction.) If he does run, we'll have plenty of time to see if there's anything more that that there, but again, considering the last two Democratic duds, I have hope.

Posted by: Mark Poling at December 6, 2006 04:41 PM

The reason you have that feeling Karol, is that Senators cannot win a Presidential election. And there are three Senators on your list.

Posted by: Jake at December 6, 2006 04:56 PM

And an ex-mayor! It just all seems so nuts.

It's not the "rednecks" that I'm worried about, it's the large social conservative base. Again, please lord let me be wrong, but Giuliani can't make it out of a Republican primary.

Posted by: Karol at December 6, 2006 05:00 PM

New York City's economy and government outclass and outsize those of most countries in the world. Mayor of NYC is a perfectly reasonable background for President, especially considering how good Rudy was at it.

As to the Senatorial curse, whatchoogonnado? The best governor out there has the misfortune of having "Bush" for a last name; KJL over at the Corner has the vapors for Romney, but I don't think I'll ever trust anything coming from Massachusetts again, no matter what letter comes after the name. So who's next?

BTW, I thought "large social conservative base" was synonymous with "redneck", at least up north here. :)

Posted by: Mark Poling at December 6, 2006 05:13 PM

I don't know.

Presuming that he's actually going to make a real presidential run, i.e. declare his candidacy, mount a primary campaign, and actually stay in the race until November of 2008-all of which I'm skeptical of to begin with-I just don't see how he sustains a credible challenge.

The media absolutely obliterated George Allen-who was a shoe-in for re-election-because he used a word so obscure that no one can identify its provenance.

That was perhaps the most ridiculous issue ever-in my opinion-and yet the media was powerful enough to utilize it in completely sinking Allen's campaign.

These people won't even need to invent crap-as they did with Allen-in order to sabatoge Giuliani.

Forget skeletons in the closet, he has skeletons leaving a trail up to his closet, which is probably packed with even more unappealing fossils.

I think the people would be willing to elect him if it were simply a matter of an up or down vote against a theoretical Dem. candidate, but the notion that he'll be able to sustain an entire campaign without either imploding or being eviscerated by the press corps is a bit delusional, IMO.

Posted by: Gerard at December 6, 2006 11:34 PM

Because they'll peak at the wrong time.

Posted by: Shawn at December 7, 2006 11:21 PM

Hillary Clinton doesn't need to peak.

All she needs to do is wait for a few million more illegal aliens to be processed through immigration, given citizenship status and enrolled in the Dem. Party.

Posted by: Gerard at December 7, 2006 11:50 PM

"I just don't trust McCain, especially after Campaign Finance. Hillary Clinton is super polarizing "

And you did trust Bill Clinton? And George W. Bush isn't super polarizing?

Maybe you're too deeply enmeshed in politics to get a good vantage point on things.

Posted by: Joe Grossberg at December 10, 2006 07:07 PM
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