"I've been around Republican primaries in many different states, for many years, and I know that on election day Republican primary voters will not choose the pro-choice, pro-civil unions, ex-mayor of NY who has been married three times. They will pick the candidate they feel is at once most conservative and also most likely to win in the general election. "

Ah, but that was before the illegals juggernaut.

The illegal alien issue will be key in ALL races this time around, mark my words. If McCain doesn't have even a satisfactory ATTEMPT at dealing with this issue sensibly, and he does not, he doesn't have a snowball's chance in gehinnom.

Oh, and this applies to the lot of them, on both sides. If Hillary doesn't get hip and start looking like she's alive on this, it'll be her undoing yet.

I think McCain will have a Dean moment. The question is, will it come during the primary or general election?

If McCain is the Republican candidate, I'll vote for Hillary.

I've pitched in my two cents-or four cents rather.

Of course, if McCain is the nominee, I will support him.

But he won't win the nomination.
He has no money to run his campaign, and he has turned off too many members of the base with his various offenses.

"...while I like having maverick friends who are unpredictable and drag me to Atlantic City on a Wednesday, I look for stability and consistency in my presidential candidates."
---------------

That's a great line, Karol.

The flip side to that is what a Daily Kos nut might say,
"I'm conservative with my investment portfolio, and I yell at the neighbor kids to stay off my lawn, but I like wackiness and unpredictability in my presidential candidates---that's why I'm supporting...Dennis Kucinich !"

I'm not sure that I'd vote for Hillary instead of McCain...but the fact I'm having to think about it does not bode well. Sorry, but the man is a little too certain that he knows what's "best" for others.

I'm not ready to accept someone like that in office (again?), especially given the current situation (terrorists _will_ strike us once more) and the fact he's made previous statements about citizens having to be willing to give up some rights (see defenses of McCain-Feingold).

So basically this whole theory comes down to ... Karol knows Republican voters better than they know themselves?

Can you show me some evidence that they're polling regular primary voters? All I see is "registered" voters and I'm saying primary voters are a different breed entirely. I know lots of people in NY that want Rudy. None of them will show up on primary day.

Also, how were Howard Dean's poll numbers right before Kerry took him out?

From Rasmussen:

For the seven days ending November 11, 2007 show that Rudy Giuliani earns 25% of the vote while Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney each attract 14%. John McCain is the favorite for 13% while Mike Huckabee’s stays in double digits at 10%. Ron Paul’s support for the week is at 6%. Tom Tancredo’s support rounds up to 1% while Duncan Hunter’s rounds down to 0%. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters. This includes both Republicans and those independents likely to vote in a Republicans Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

To be honest, I am not too familiar with polls. I take it that "Likely Republican Primary Voters" refers to those who say they plan to vote in the primary, but perhaps it just assumes all Republicans are likely to do so.

I'm not sure what it means either. I'd like to think it means voters who have consistently voted in previous primaries. We'll see, Tomito, I'd be ok with you being right.

The only thing I can say with any certainty is that the next off-year election I'm voting against Marty Golden-provided that hack actually has an opponent-and anyone else who voted to move this thing to the dead of Winter.

Asshats.

Wow, dead wrong. Karol, we all love you, and you have many talents, but horserace analysis is not one of them. Gut instinct and "tastes like Reagan" mantras are best tempered by reality checks in the polls.

For starters, I note that a new poll was released yesterday for Arizona that shows McCain is actually projected to narrowly lose his own state. Which must be really frustrating for him, seeing as that was the only state he had a lead in. And, to beat the dead horse, you could of course point out that he has no shot at picking up momentum from the early states, as he has only 6.5% support in Iowa, and is in a dead-heat for coming in 5th in South Carolina. Is it good news for him that he's in approx. 3rd place in NH, falling 17% behind the front-runner?

He has no momentum, his fundraising numbers have consistently made headlines in how low they are, he has no base of poll support anywhere (in the Southwest not only is he at risk of losing his own state primary, he has only 8% support in neighboring NV!). He is not at all competitive in the South (in GA, Thompson has 333% more support!) or the Northeast (where Giuliani has 3 to 4x the support McCain has). In large swing states, (PA, Oh, etc.) he has usually half to a third of the support of the front-runner. In other words, not only does he not lead anywhere, he is not close to leading anywhere except AZ.

And yes, almost all of these polls are based on projections of likely voters in primaries on election day -- your insight, while no doubt correct, is not news to the pollsters, and thus they do not rely on "voters" or "adults" generally, but rather likely voters as in this most recent poll of FL:

Rasmussen 11/18 - 11/18 (508 Likely Voters)
Giuliani 27%
Romney 19%
Thompson 16%
McCain 10%
Huckabee 9%

Add to that the fact that primaries begin in only 43 days and that we will almost certainly know which candidate the party has chosen in 76 days, and you can conclude safely that McCain is done. Stick a fork in him. Your theory is all very nice on paper, and he does actually poll the strongest in head-to-head matches against Hillary (for example, he is the only GOP candidate who polls ahead of Clinton in head-to-head matches in Washington, and in KS he polls 10% better than any other GOP candidate vs Hillary). But that's just theory, the reality is that although he is probably our strongest candidate today in the polls, he has almost no chance of winning the nomination.

Or to put it another way, I think Thompson has a much better chance of winning, and you know what I think of his chances.