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June 10, 2008

Gut predictions

As longtime readers of this blog know, I predicted John McCain would be the Republican nominee when it was considered batshit crazy to do so. He had no money and he had no poll numbers, but I had been around so many Republican primaries that I felt I knew how these things worked.

With five months out from the general election, I figured it's time to make I make a wild guess as to its outcome. George Will is predicting Obama will crush McCain. Possible. Here's mine: McCain holds everything Bush won, the election hinges on Ohio, McCain wins. Of course, if the Obama landslide comes to pass, I can just give the standard pollster answer that my prediction was but a snapshot in time.

Posted by Karol at June 10, 2008 09:29 AM | TrackBack
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I hope to God you're right, but McCain needs to 'change' some things beginning today:
-Learn to read from a teleprompter.
-National security is vital, but for now "it's the economy stupid". Get on message. Win the battle of ideas.
-Lose the tie 3 days per week.
-Showcase examples of 'reaching across the isle'. Ask Obama why he never has.
-When discussing national security, have Lieberman at your side.
-Economy.
-Economy.
-Economy.

Posted by: Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg at June 10, 2008 10:15 AM

Here's an interesting read on this subject by Ed Brayton.

I don't see how McCain is going to win, especially if the Libertarians vote for Barr. McCain is going to need every single vote he can get because Obama is such an eloquent speaker and, whether he likes it or not, McCain represents the "Old Guard" in this election.

Posted by: Pokerwolf at June 10, 2008 11:17 AM

Nobody thought McCain would win the primary either...

Posted by: Karol at June 10, 2008 11:35 AM

I'm not saying it isn't possible, but he has a long row to hoe.

Posted by: Pokerwolf at June 10, 2008 11:42 AM

Pokerwolf, I just read the piece you linked and that only made me like my own prediction better. He cites that so many more Democrats than Republicans voted in the primaries of states like NC and PA. Uh, yeah, that's cause McCain was already the nominee while Obama and Hil were in some kind of deathmatch. Those numbers sound impressive but aren't. Maybe I'm wrong and 0bama will romp but that post definitely doesn't make it seem that way.

Posted by: Karol at June 10, 2008 11:45 AM

Obama has a major flaw that will doom his campaign. He thinks he is brilliant in spite of his lack of knowledge of history or economics. Plus he is a complete doofus when he is off the teleprompter.

So he makes really embarrassing mistakes daily. MSM is doing a good job covering them up but they can't do it forever.

Posted by: Jake at June 10, 2008 01:12 PM

Yes, you're such an old salt. Were you alive when Carter was endless erring for his hour? McCain got the nomination because the conservative vote was split between the faux conservative Huckleberry Boob, and the Mormon.

Every election comes down to the campaigns. Almost any Republican candidate could win this race. All that McCain need do is let the electorate know who Osama Obama is. The truth is going to hurt. Two thirds of America don't want a Marxist in the white house.

If McCain allows them to put him in their box, he'll go down in flames, again. We already saw in the primaries the hollowness of the experience claim, no matter how valid. A similar thing happened in '92, where Clinton slimed Bush. If McCain plays patty-cake instead of punching him in the mouth, he'll lose.

Posted by: Casca at June 10, 2008 02:07 PM

I could be wrong, but I don't think McCain is angling for the libertarian vote, which even if you could quantify it wouldn't be as substantial as that of blue-collar Democrats, white women, Jews, among others.

Neusner's column in The Post was interesting, but I think he's exaggeratting the appeal of Obama to traditionally Dem. constituencies. I wouldn't be shocked if he garners more than 55% of the Jewish vote, but even that would be a huge climbdown for a Dem. nominee. I also think he's going to have trouble in rust belt states.

That being said, I wouldn't be shocked if Obama wins. Oil is crushing the economy-in no small part because of the policy prescriptions of the Dems-and McCain has a luddite, no-growth environmental policy that's almost indistinguishable from that of his chief opponent.

Posted by: Gerard at June 10, 2008 03:34 PM

Mccain's a lock.

Posted by: Not Dawn Summers at June 10, 2008 06:39 PM

McCain and Obama both have stuff which will damage their chances IMO. The dems seem to be doing better at getting their damage out at the moment. A coming (if not arrived) recession isn't going to help any incumbent party.

Posted by: bryan at June 10, 2008 06:57 PM

Not going to go out on a limb and make predictions for the presidency till VP picks. If Obama takes Bill Richardson, I think the Dems could easily pick up New Mexico which Bush won in 04.

The Dems keep the House.

The Dems also keep the Senate. Adios Ted Stevens, Little Sununu and Roger Wicker in an upset. Dems pick up Virgina (has any politician on the national stag collapsed so much the last few years as Jim Gillmore?), New Mexico and Colorado in the Senate (too bad, I think Bob Schaffer would be a fine Senator). Dole, Collins, Gordon Smith and Norm Coleman hold. So does Mitch McConnell. I think Kennedy comes close in LA but no cigar.

Posted by: Von Bek at June 10, 2008 07:54 PM

I hope he can win here in Ohio. I'm in a really blue area (Cleveland) so it's hard to say.

Posted by: Cappy at June 10, 2008 09:38 PM

That's assuming he doesn't die of old age before then.

Posted by: W.C. Varones at June 10, 2008 10:24 PM

i'm pretty sure you owe me several hundred dollars on our hillary prop bet.

now i'm old and forgetful, but i'm pretty sure i gave you pretty stiff odds too.

i'll settle for a beer at this point, i'm so damn happy.

Posted by: iggy at June 10, 2008 10:30 PM

Do you hold all of your comments for moderation, or just me?

Posted by: W.C. Varones at June 10, 2008 11:40 PM

CON-SPIRA-SEEZ!!!!

Posted by: Gerard at June 11, 2008 12:26 AM

W.C.,

It's all of her comments, not just you. Trust me, I've had stuff show up hours later than I posted it. I think it's that whole "job and life" thing our hostess has.

Posted by: James at June 11, 2008 08:15 AM

i'm pretty sure you owe me several hundred dollars on our hillary prop bet.

I'm pretty sure it cancels out with you "Rudy is going to win" prediction. :-)

Do you hold all of your comments for moderation, or just me?

My commenting software decides for itself what comments to moderate. For example, Pokerwolf will always be held for my approval because he has "poker" in his name, a common spam word. No idea why it holds yours.

Posted by: Karol at June 11, 2008 10:56 AM

I still think it's McCain's to lose. Obama needs a walk-in closet to hold all his skeletons.

Posted by: Eric at June 11, 2008 05:12 PM

I think McCain could pull it out. It's a long time until November.

I know the VP choice doesn't normally have a lot of influence on the prez race but, this time, I bet the picks of McCain and Obama do push some people one way or another.

McCain would be closer to getting my vote if he put Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on the ticket as his VP choice.

Posted by: Paul Snatchko at June 11, 2008 10:32 PM
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