I don't know about impossible, but I would agree that peace is highly improbable. What is impossible is a clear-cut, permanent victory for either side. No amount of military might would be enough for Israel to overwhelmingly defeat all its enemies in the region. It would take a literal genocide of unprecedented size. That will never happen, and even if it did, it would only lead to defeat by newer, bigger enemies.

At the same time, I can't envision any scenario where Israel would concede defeat. The two sides seem destined go on like this for the long run.

One thing that I could see happening -- not that I think it will, but it's entirely possible -- is that the U.S. will one day wash its hands of the whole thing and withdraw foreign aid from Israel and the Arabs. That might change the equation.

No amount of military might would be enough for Israel to overwhelmingly defeat all its enemies in the region.

That's just not true. Israel could defeat its enemies so that they never, ever, ever, ever rise up again but won't because it's ultimately a benevolent force which tries to spare civilian casualties. They can do it, but won't.

But here's the thing, eventually the Palestinians are going to get real weapons and then all bets are off. I forget who wrote this line (googling it only produces me quoting it thinking it might be Daniel Pipes) but I think it sums up Israel's thinking "never again, and if us again then not us alone."

Can you get an Israeli/Palestine conflict blog? This does not interest me. Where are the songs of the day posts?

Go comment on my wedding blog: http://weddingplanningiskillingme.blogspot.com/

"Israel could defeat its enemies so that they never, ever, ever, ever rise up again but won't because it's ultimately a benevolent force which tries to spare civilian casualties. They can do it, but won't."

No they can't. That would require a green light from Washington and that simply is not going to happen. Little nephew Israel can't do a thing without Uncle Sam's generosity. Over 101 billion from the American taxpayers and over 50 billion spent on military aid. If Uncle Sam plays the tune, our little nephew has to dance.

Co comment on my Scrabble blog: http://www.goingtouseallseven.blogspot.com/

Von Bek, that's just wrong. Fine, the US has massively supported Israel over the years but A) should they cut off funding to them completely, Israel will survive and B) you must be in lalaland to think that Israeli and American interests aren't the same. What? You think America has been funding Israel because it just likes the cut of its jib? C'mon now.

Changed "idiotic" to "wrong" in my comment. I think your comment is completely incorrect but no reason to call it names.

I think your comment is completely incorrect but no reason to call it names.

Or give it wedgies and pick it last for dodgeball teams.

Nah, I'd kick its ass a little.

Sure American and Israeli intrests are often the same. But let's not kid outselves. They are not always the same. See China for example.

Let's take a look at a nation which has to be considered an enemy of Israel. Saudi Arabia is part of the boycot of Israel (even if they talk around it for WTO reasons). America and the Saudis have, obviously, much better relations. If Israel was to attack all their enemies, why they would have to attack Saudi Arabia.

Do you honestly think that Israel would attack Saudi Arabia without America's green light?

I'm not saying we need to cut off military finding for Israel but for your scenario to happen Israel has to have Washington's backing.

Thanks for changing "idiotic" to "wrong."

America and the Saudis have, obviously, much better relations.

Yes, much. Why, only like 15 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were from Saudi.

And Israel isn't randomly attacking its "enemies". It's attaching the enemies that are pelting it with rockets. You better believe that if Saudi attacked Israel it would fight back with or without the US ok. They're just not going down like that. Again.

That's just not true. Israel could defeat its enemies so that they never, ever, ever, ever rise up again but won't because it's ultimately a benevolent force which tries to spare civilian casualties. They can do it, but won't.

Short of all-out genocide of the entire Muslim population of the world, no it can't. That's really what it would take to defeat all its enemies (the enemies it has now and the enemies it would create along the way). Even if it were able to do that (which I doubt), being unwilling to commit genocide is not in itself proof of benevolence.

I mean, seriously, just what do you envision total victory looking like? How many millions dead?

you must be in lalaland to think that Israeli and American interests aren't the same. What? You think America has been funding Israel because it just likes the cut of its jib?

I guess I must live in lalaland, because America simply doesn't have any legitimate interests in the middle east. Do some American corporations have interests in the middle east? Yes. Do some powerful special interests have interests in the middle east? Yes. But our country as a whole has absolutely none. In fact, meddling there is very much against our interests.

Please note that none of the above means that I am "against Israel." I wish it and its people nothing but peace and prosperity. I just think its security is none of my business or my government's business.

"Yes, much. Why, only like 15 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were from Saudi."

Yes, Karol. That's exactly the position of the Saudi government.....

As for Israel acting without the US ok, I have a hard time swallowing it. Look maybe it's me being a patriot and an American exceptionalist in the "city on the hill" tradition but I honestly don't think the Star of David can make it without the Stars and Stripes-our financial backing, our military technology, our prayers and our goodwill. And as much as I may grumble about Pollardism, I think Israel generally understands this and has shown our republic a great deal of appreciation and respect. And if not quite as close to us as say Great Britain, Canada and Australia, Israel is one of our best allies and certainly the only one worth a damn in the region. I honeslty can't imagine Israel would go out of its way to undermine that special relationship. And I think the facts may back me up here since there are reports out there that W. put the brakes on an Israeli strike at Iran which looms as a very large threat to Israel.

Von Bek conveniently forgets all the money that fund Arab aggression against Israel, including coming from the US. Here's a little arithmetic any housewife would understand: you don't want to pay billions to support a country that's being attacked from all sides? Stop paying other billions to her foes. Maybe then she'll be fine with mere millions, then. See the logic?

Karol is correct. The Israelis could go it alone if they had to. In the short term they have all they need. Longer term, they have independently developed military technology they could sell to make up the cash shortfall.

American UAV technology is really Israeli UAV technology. The same is true of the most advanced vehicle protection systems. They also make very advanced radars and avionics systems. So far the US has been able to limit the sale of and benefit from these technologies because of the money we give them. But if the aid dries up, so does our influence.

And much of that aid is predicated on the purchase of American equipment. They could easily make up half the shortfall just by buying from the Russians. In many cases they'd be better off with Russian hardware anyway, since it tends to be easier and cheaper to maintain.

And they wouldn't have to kill millions. They could get the point across just by carpet-bombing Gaza. I mean sustained incendiaries with chimney effect firestorms, etc. The works. A few hundred thousand, a million, tops. The other Arabs would yell and scream, but in the end Israel's neighbors know they'll get nuked if they actually start winning.

Since Saudi Arabia funds Hamas and other Palestinian militias like Fatah and the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, they have attacked Israel, but if we look at it in those terms, then every country that has been attacked by Sunni Islamist militias could blame Saudi Arabia. But no one ever does.

Speaking of money, oil is about $35 a barrel today, which is below the break-even point for producers. They were in trouble when it went below $60, and they're really in trouble now. Arab governments have lost billions, and their stock markets and real estate markets are tanking. They may not have enough money to fund these militias.

The response in Gaza may have been well-timed.

Mary, won't the price go up when they stop producing so much?
The idea of who will 'win'; the people who hate both Jews and Muslims, surely? they must be loving this. Also the sellers of arms.

No, Tatyana, I am more than aware of that money and if it was up to me, foreign aid would be slashed across the board. While some nations deserve it if threatened (South Korea and Israel), I would simply eliminate US funding of nations hostile to us-including most of the Islamic world (I suppose Turkey would be one I would keep giving dinero to).

Mary, won't the price go up when they stop producing so much?

They've tried cutting production, and it hasn't worked. This war should have brought the price up but it hasn't.

I don't know enough about the economy to say why, but anyone knows that when the enemy is weak, you should hit them with all you've got. I hope India is taking advantage of recent Saudi/Pakistani weakness (and everyone's focus on Gaza) to do something about the terrorist cells in the Kashmir.

That's just not true. Israel could defeat its enemies so that they never, ever, ever, ever rise up again but won't because it's ultimately a benevolent force which tries to spare civilian casualties. They can do it, but won't.

Yes, and in order to do that they'd have to turn the entire Middle East into a parking lot.

Which would start WWIII. Does Israel practice restraint when it attacks? Usually, yes. But, stating that's because they're "benevolent" may be overstating things. I'm quite sure that if Israel was allowed to they'd grind the Palestinians to dust without any regrets. A war over 2000 years old does not continue to happen because it's one-sided and Israel has not just been reactionary and defensive.

"Yes, much. Why, only like 15 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were from Saudi."

Yes, Karol. That's exactly the position of the Saudi government.....

I'm glad someone else brought it up before I had to do so. I'm waiting for Karol to post the derogatory comments that Israelis say about Palestinians, but I don't know if she will because that will show that Israelis are just as biased, bigoted, and unwilling to work for peace as the Palestinians.

By the way, Karol, before you think I'm a Palestinian apologist, I'm not. I fully understand that the Arab World funds their terrorist groups very quietly to attack Israel so they can have their diplomats decry the actions of those groups in public. I'm simply tired of people defending Israel without conceding that they're part of the problem too.

Israel can defend itself vs. any conventional and most non-conventional attacks. Projecting its smaller technologically superior force would be a more difficult task but not impossible.

However, what everyone is failing to realize with the US- Israeli link is that many Israeli’s are not for genocide or occupation of his or her neighbors. Being a democracy makes those endeavors (occupation and genocide) quite difficult.

Not to mention asking a conscripted soldier to kill civilians has historically been ill received. Just take a look at some pictures of the Israeli forces being used in Gaza they are predominately 18-21 year "kids" that you would ask to do the dirty work.

Long story short Israel "could" but would not wipe out its neighbors. If the power was reversed I sadly do not believe the relationship would hold true.

Eric I was interested in your piece right up to the point about the quality of soviet military equipment. lol @ that.

I don't think it was "quality" he was referring to, as much as unit cost, ease of maintenance, etc.

I.e., the reason the AK-47 is hands-down the world-wide weapon of choice is its ruggedness and criminally low price.

And they wouldn't have to kill millions. They could get the point across just by carpet-bombing Gaza. I mean sustained incendiaries with chimney effect firestorms, etc. The works. A few hundred thousand, a million, tops. The other Arabs would yell and scream, but in the end Israel's neighbors know they'll get nuked if they actually start winning.

The scary part is I think you might be serious.

Look, it wouldn't be just the other Arabs who would yell and scream if hundreds of thousands of Gaza Arabs -- overwhelmingly innocent civilians -- were killed. The whole world would turn against Israel (yes, even more than they have already), and with damn good reason. Nobody would trade with them, nobody would visit there ever again, aside from a few lunatic religious fanatics. The U.S. wouldn't just turn on Israel; it would lead the way in imposing regime change.

Yes, AK's and RPG's are cheap, but the downside of owning anything with a T or F in front of it just doesn't make sense. You want to be sure, when you're buying big ticket items, that you've got the best of breed.

Groan. AK47s....alright I'm at a speech a few months ago and this guy said with a straight face that the reasons AK47s are so popular are 1.)that weird curved magazine and 2) apparently some of the Cobra figures from GIJoe used them and kids of my era thought Cobra was cooler than the Joes.

AK's are great if you need to bury your weapon in the sand and come back for it in a month. But velocity/accuracy not so much.

Regarding the bulk of the equipment Israel imports i.e. Jets/Rockets Russia does not compete with US gear. Might be cheaper initially but certainly not easier to maintain (repairs / flight hour or mile). That goes against the IDF military doctrine but yeah I guess they could do it and run seperate logistics and I'm sure the Russians will offer to train the crews just as well in maintenance.....well maybe not so much..

Israel has some very nice equipment the Merkava being a world class tank along with the assault rifles they haved develped. Much better than Russian krap.

Dan: Eric I was interested in your piece right up to the point about the quality of soviet military equipment. lol @ that.

You missed my point. I didn't say it was higher quality, I said they'd be better off with Russian hardware because it's cheaper and easier to maintain. There's no doubt the Russian stuff is inferior on a one-to-one basis, but price/performance-wise it's vastly superior. You can get 50 surplus T-72s for the cost of a single M-1. Whether it makes sense to do so depends on who you're gearing up to fight. Fighting the US or France? Doesn't make sense. Fighting Jordan? Makes a lot of sense. In the end the effectiveness of your military depends a great deal on how efficiently you've spent your money, and buying the Cadillac is rarely the best option. We do because we can afford to outspend everyone else put together. The Israelis do it because we force them to.

By the way, Israel already produces world-class tanks and assault rifles. There's no reason for them to buy T-72s or AK-47s when they have Merkavas and TAR-21s. I was thinking more along the lines of fighters and air defense batteries. It's true the USAF would mop the floor with 'em, but there isn't any realistic scenario which has Israel taking on the USAF and coming out on top. But we're not dominant in the air because our fighters are so technically superior. Our dominance comes from depth - large numbers of well-maintained aircraft supported by AWACS and flown by pilots who get more training hours than pilots of any other country. We've had the luxury of air bases far away from the combat zone. All this adds up to make the small quality advantage seem much larger than it really is. The exception is the F-22, but that one is so expensive the Israelis can't afford it anyway.

Also, don't sell the Russian aircraft short. They lag a bit in avionics and stealth, but the Israelis tend to upgrade the radar and avionics when they buy new aircraft. Russian aircraft have a lot of innovations appropriate for a country under attack. For example, robust enough landing gear to use grassy fields as runways and wing-top intake vents which allow take-off from debris-strewn runways. Again, for fighting the Jordanians, the Saudis, or the Iranians Russian aircraft are just fine.

I asked him the question I always ask of Hamas leaders: Could you agree to anything more than a tactical cease-fire with Israel?

I would've thought the Hamas charter made it perfectly clear there'd never be anything other than a tactical cease-fire, particularly Article 13:

Initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences, are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic Resistance Movement.
...
There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors.

Unfortunately Eric there is the chance that the Israeli Air Force does need to take on F-16's, F-15's and doing so with fewer numbers and inferior jets is not an option. The quality advantage as you call it comes in equipment and training. Losing US support in those areas would hurt quite a bit.

Regarding the use of T-72's Israel uses fewer, highly trained, technologically superior equipment and tactics. Using T-72s en masse and with limited support (because they breakdown real easy) is the Arab tactic that hasn't proved very successful. Spending years training a tank crew and losing them because the tank doesn't work, is more vulnerable to attack or is not technologically sophisticated would not be good for a smaller force that operates under the Democracy rules of "we can't have casualties" too boot.

I think we agree more than we disagree but thanks for the response.

First off, I'm against all foreign aid, especially to Israel. From what I understand, the foreign aid to Israel is in the form of loan guarantees, with which Israel must purchase American made weapons. That's a boon to the weapons companies in the U.S. However, Israel is more than capable of making her own weapons. After all, they have booming high tech industry.

Also, if there was no foreign aid to Israel, Israel wouldn't have to be America's "little nephew."

Now in terms of stopping worldwide terrorism, we have to find an alternative to oil. Domestic and offshore drilling are merely stop gap measures. We must make oil completely worthless. That way, rogue states like Saudi Arabia would not be able to hold that weapon over our heads, and veto our foreign policy decisions. Then, we must stop all Muslim immigration to the U.S. and to the West for that matter. We would ultimately doing these countries a favor, as they consider America, and Western culture to be immoral and decadent.

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